New Hammersmith SeatA few people have asked whether the new Hammersmith seat will be Conservative or Labour at the next election. Opinions vary on this, it will be a highly marginal seat. Perhaps the best explanation is provided by local psephologist and councillor Mark Loveday:
"Despite the name, this is not the true successor to the Hammersmith & Fulham seat won by Greg Hands on a 7.3% swing in 2005. The safe Conservative wards in Fulham now form the larger part of the new Chelsea & Fulham constituency. Labour safe wards in Shepherds Bush have been added to the marginal Hammersmith and north Fulham wards to form the new Hammersmith seat. This will be a much better prospect for the Conservatives than the General Election figures may suggest. The Tories polled 44% to 39% in the new constituency at the 2006 borough council elections and took a 16 to 13 majority of the councillors. Labour losers included the Mayor, Council Leader, former MP Iain Coleman and Labour’s 2005 parliamentary candidate in H&F. Also, Martin Baxter called the new Hammersmith seat for the Conservatives in 2005, and now (Oct 2006) suggests they have surged to a 7% lead. Elections in this part of London tend to be hard fought high budget affairs and they have recently shown big swings away from Labour. It is a very good chance of a Tory win - even at a notional no. 129. "
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